Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)

This DFB-Pokal spread market has collapsed from 47¢ to 10¢ over seven days, pricing Leverkusen's -1.5 victory at just 10% probability with extreme realized volatility of 3,018% and a critical cliff risk index of 9. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $280 open interest suggests this is a highly illiquid, potentially stale quote with just 3 days to expiration, making the price unreliable for serious trading. The 4¢ spread and 1.59 volatility ratio indicate significant uncertainty, though the sharp price decline likely reflects genuine market skepticism about Leverkusen winning by 2+ goals rather than a mispricing opportunity.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game, scheduled for April 22 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bayer 04 Leverkusen" if Bayer 04 Leverkusen win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FC Bayern München". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on dfb.de. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

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