Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Polymarket, closing January 12, 2027. This India inflation range market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $586 open interest, paired with a massive 42¢ bid-ask spread that signals pricing uncertainty.
Analysis
This India inflation range market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $586 open interest, paired with a massive 42¢ bid-ask spread that signals pricing uncertainty. The 27¢ price implies only a 27% probability of inflation landing in the 3.75-4.49% band, while the astronomical 389% risk-adjusted implied yield and 5954% realized volatility suggest highly speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction. With 267 days to expiration and an information arrival rate of 6.2 signals per hour, the market appears thinly traded and vulnerable to sharp repricing as actual inflation data emerges.
Resolution rules
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
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sf trade 0x99f9b93f2a1722242f785513441a6b53329b974016cee38cc18ab7a6d9580734 yes 100