Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Rotten Tomatoes score?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Rotten Tomatoes score?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 2144% implied yield versus 475% for Yes, suggesting severe underpricing of downside risk despite the 78¢ price implying 78% probability of a score above 60.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 2144% implied yield versus 475% for Yes, suggesting severe underpricing of downside risk despite the 78¢ price implying 78% probability of a score above 60. The sharp 7-day decline from 77¢ to 68¢ combined with minimal liquidity ($6.25 open interest, $1.25 daily volume) and a wide 10¢ spread indicates thin trading conditions where the price may not reflect true consensus. With 36 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, traders should be cautious that the extreme No-side yield could reflect either genuine uncertainty about the film's critical reception or simply illiquidity-driven mispricing.
Resolution rules
If Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu has a Tomatometer score of above 60 on May 25, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRT-STA-60 yes 100