Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

This illiquid market pricing Google at just 28¢ reflects extreme skepticism about Google claiming the second-best AI model by June 2026, despite an eye-catching 1,268% implied yield on the Yes side that's heavily skewed by the low price floor. With zero 24-hour volume, $8,835 open interest, and a 4¢ spread on a market 74 days from expiry, the pricing appears more reflective of thin order books than fundamental conviction—the 271% realized volatility and neutral regime suggest uncertainty rather than consensus bearishness. The high cliff risk (3/5) combined with the info arrival rate of 0.6 events per hour indicates this market could experience sharp repricing as new AI model releases or benchmark results emerge closer to resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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