Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1347% and a vol ratio of 11.01, suggesting highly erratic price discovery despite modest $10 daily volume and $15k open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1347% and a vol ratio of 11.01, suggesting highly erratic price discovery despite modest $10 daily volume and $15k open interest. The price has collapsed 27 percentage points over seven days (from 62¢ to 45¢), indicating a significant negative information arrival event, though the 173% implied yield on "Yes" positions suggests some traders still see asymmetric upside potential. With 258 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, the market appears to be stabilizing around the 45¢ level, but the extreme realized volatility and low liquidity create substantial execution risk for meaningful position sizing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9a59e167b7111dcfbd1b42b55a1105cfea20989105d1b65a267fb81419bc02a2 yes 100