Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided outcome with Democrats at 94¢, yet the No side shows an absurd 2849.7% implied yield—a classic sign of illiquidity and minimal trading activity, confirmed by $0 in 24-hour volume despite $27k in open interest. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the stark asymmetry in payoff odds, and the 16 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant concentration of positions that could create sharp repricing if new information emerges before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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