Will the Democratic Party win the TX-18 House seat?

The 95¢ price reflects an extremely lopsided market where the Democratic outcome is heavily favored, yet the No side offers a staggering 3,451% implied yield compared to just 9.6% for Yes, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. With zero 24-hour volume despite $7.7M in open interest and a 6¢ spread, this appears to be a dead or illiquid market where the extreme yield on the No side is likely unattainable—typical of prediction markets where one side has minimal backing. The high Cliff Risk Index of 19 and 201 days to expiration suggest potential for significant repricing if new information emerges about TX-18's competitive dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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