Will the Republican Party win the MI-08 House seat?

This MI-08 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.3M open interest, coupled with a massive 40¢ spread and 2257% realized volatility that suggests price discovery is severely impaired. The Republican probability has nearly doubled from 14¢ to 27¢ over seven days with an implausibly high 473% risk-adjusted yield on the Yes side, indicating either mispricing or thin-market distortion rather than genuine conviction. With 199 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be a low-confidence pricing signal that warrants caution for traders seeking reliable exposure to the MI-08 race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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