Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Xi Jinping out before 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 7¢ price reflects an extremely low 7% probability of Xi's removal by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,880% implied yield versus just 10.6% for No, creating a stark risk-reward asymmetry typical of tail-risk markets.
Analysis
The 7¢ price reflects an extremely low 7% probability of Xi's removal by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,880% implied yield versus just 10.6% for No, creating a stark risk-reward asymmetry typical of tail-risk markets. With $154.7M open interest against only $18.1M daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to position size, and the zero spread masks potential execution challenges at scale. The recent price decline from 8¢ to 7¢ over seven days, combined with a moderate 13 Cliff Risk Index and 258 days to expiry, suggests modest selling pressure on an already-discounted outcome that the market views as highly unlikely but not impossible.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7 yes 100