Xi Jinping out before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Xi Jinping out before 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
0xa467b1…43b7
Analysis
This contract reflects the market's assessment of roughly 8% odds that Xi Jinping loses his position as China's top leader by the end of 2026. Xi currently holds the positions of General Secretary of the Communist Party, President, and Chairman of the Military Commission. The low probability reflects his consolidated control of China's political system and lack of obvious succession mechanisms. Markets would reassess this probability if there were unexpected health crises, major military conflicts, severe economic disruptions, or signs of elite faction breakdown within the Party. The 20th National Congress in 2027 represents the next scheduled leadership transition opportunity, though Xi is not constitutionally required to step down then. Compared to other world leaders on similar contracts, this probability sits below estimates for European premiers but above historical norms for entrenched authoritarian leaders.
- ›Xi has consolidated near-total control of Party, state, and military structures with no obvious rival faction or constitutional mechanism forcing his removal before late 2026
- ›Major health events, military escalation over Taiwan, or severe financial crisis could trigger elite recalculation, but no such triggering events are currently evident
- ›The scheduled 20th Party Congress occurs in late 2027, outside the contract window, meaning removal before then would require extraordinary circumstances rather than routine succession planning
- ›Polymarket volume of $16,608 in 24h trading suggests moderate but not extreme liquidity, indicating this contract has interest but limited institutional participation
- ›Comparable markets show Trump removal priced at 14% and Orbán at 5%, establishing context for how markets price removal risk across different regime types
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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