Will there be at least 1 upset in the 1st Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will there be at least 1 upset in the 1st Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. The market is pricing in a 95% probability of at least one first-round upset, reflecting the historical frequency of upsets in NBA playoffs, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (121.5% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 95% probability of at least one first-round upset, reflecting the historical frequency of upsets in NBA playoffs, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (121.5% for Yes vs. 12,416.5% for No) indicate severe illiquidity on the No side with only $759 in open interest. The sharp 12-point price rally over seven days (79¢ to 91¢) combined with modest 24-hour volume of $259 and a high cliff risk index of 10 suggests the market may be vulnerable to repricing as the May 16 expiration approaches, particularly if new information arrives about playoff seeding or team health.
Resolution rules
If the teams in the Pro Basketball playoffs record at least 1 series upset in the 1st Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAUPSET-26R1-1 yes 100