Will the Republican Party win the NJ-01 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing at just 8 cents with a staggering 2,099% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting extremely low probability in a heavily Democratic district where Republicans have minimal historical success. Despite $17,441 in open interest, the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a 2-cent spread, suggesting illiquidity and potential difficulty executing trades at posted prices. The 12 Cliff Risk Index and 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election indicate this is a speculative long-shot bet rather than a competitive race, with the asymmetric yield profile typical of deep out-of-the-money political contracts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade