Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026. The Cubs' 3¢ price reflects a severely depressed valuation with an extraordinary 5990% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep pessimism about the franchise or potential mispricing relative to their historical competitiveness.
Analysis
The Cubs' 3¢ price reflects a severely depressed valuation with an extraordinary 5990% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep pessimism about the franchise or potential mispricing relative to their historical competitiveness. The 197-day timeframe to resolution and $122.4M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution about late-stage volatility as the 2026 season approaches. The massive yield asymmetry (5990% vs 5.7%) and zero spread indicate this is likely a contrarian bet where even modest Cubs improvement could generate outsized returns for early believers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xae0363bfe26b7de87f4526c47d5de9b324bab3d14690112bd89b34c9ed3552fc yes 100