Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?

The Buffalo Bills championship contract trades at an extremely depressed 8¢ with an extraordinary 1,203.8% implied yield on the yes side, suggesting severe underpricing relative to their actual Super Bowl odds—a typical contender should trade 3-5x higher. The massive $334.9M open interest combined with minimal 24-hour volume of just $85 indicates this is a liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine market conviction. With 349 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability despite the Bills' consistent playoff competitiveness, creating a potential value opportunity for contrarian bettors willing to accept the liquidity risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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