What is the current probability for "Will Bahia win Brazil Série A?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 16, 2026. 233 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bahia win Brazil Série A?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3765.8% and 6.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bahia win Brazil Série A?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bahia win Brazil Série A?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Bahia win Brazil Série A?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing December 16, 2026.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 1/8¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $165.54·Closes Dec 16, 2026·233d remaining

0xb1a7ee53474404e96328361c55335ef78207e705daca33f35c96e55876bd800e

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the Brazil Série A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Brazil Série A per the rules of Brazil Série A (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Brazil Série A; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3765.8%

IY (No) 6.5%

Adj IY 1883%

CRI 24

Overround 0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3765.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1883%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/27/2026, 9:16:51 AM

Indicators computed 4/27/2026, 9:08:22 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb1a7ee53474404e96328361c55335ef78207e705daca33f35c96e55876bd800e yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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