What is the current probability for "What will Spotify Technology S.A. say during their next earnings call?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 48¢ (48% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 30, 2026. 156 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What will Spotify Technology S.A. say during their next earnings call?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 365.2% and 149.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

What will Spotify Technology S.A. say during their next earnings call?

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that What will Spotify Technology S.A. say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026.

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48¢

Bid/Ask 39/46¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $2.01·OI $279.02·Closes Sep 30, 2026·156d remaining

KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPOT-26APR28-MESS

7-day price81 snapshots · 4 regime

44¢39¢ current

Apr 172¢Apr 26

Resolution rules

If Message is said by any Spotify Technology S.A. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Spotify Technology S.A. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 365.2%

IY (No) 149.3%

Adj IY 365%

CRI 2

RV 253%

VR 1.29

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	365.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	149.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	365%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	253%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.29	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/27/2026, 6:20:05 AM

Indicators computed 4/27/2026, 6:08:22 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONSPOT-26APR28-MESS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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