Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?

This TX-24 Democratic contract shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 498% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 27¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather sparse trading activity. The modest $14,077 open interest and tight 1¢ spread indicate minimal liquidity depth, making the high yield figures potentially misleading given the difficulty of actually executing positions at these prices. With 198 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the low Democratic probability reflects Texas-24's Republican lean rather than deep conviction from active traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade