Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at 88¢ with a notably extreme asymmetric yield profile—the No side offers a 1333.9% implied yield versus just 24.8% for Yes, suggesting the market heavily favors Republican victory in WI-05 but with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume despite $13k open interest). The 72% realized volatility and 7-point cliff risk index indicate significant uncertainty despite the high price, and with 201 days to expiry, substantial information arrival (0.4/hour) could still shift this heavily skewed market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade