Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?

The Republican contract has surged 33% over seven days to 61¢, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment toward GOP prospects in MO-05, though the $0 24-hour volume and $14,727.81 open interest suggest this illiquid market may not reflect true consensus pricing. The extreme realized volatility of 1732% and asymmetric implied yields (116% for Yes vs. 284% for No) indicate substantial uncertainty, with the No side offering dramatically higher risk-adjusted returns despite the Republican lean. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this market appears vulnerable to information shocks, particularly given the 2.4 info arrivals per hour and elevated cliff risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade