Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9-cent Republican price generating a nonsensical 1,846% implied yield on the Yes side, while zero 24-hour volume and $21K open interest suggest severe illiquidity masking the true probability. The 843% realized volatility and 10/10 cliff risk index indicate this is a highly unstable, thinly-traded contract where the 9-cent quote likely reflects minimal genuine conviction rather than informed consensus. Rhode Island is a heavily Democratic state where Republicans have virtually no recent Senate viability, making the 9% price plausible on fundamentals, but the extreme yield metrics and dead volume suggest this market may be suffering from stale pricing or technical artifacts rather than representing actionable information.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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