Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

The market prices MBS's removal at just 7% despite a 259-day timeframe, but the extreme 1874% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests severe mispricing or heavy skew toward the "No" outcome—typical for low-probability political events with binary payoffs. With $24.8M open interest against only $15.6K daily volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders. The neutral regime score and modest 7-day price stability (6¢ to 7¢) indicate the market has settled into a consensus view, though the 13 Cliff Risk Index flags potential for sharp repricing if geopolitical developments emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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