What is the current probability for "Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.6% and 44.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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23¢

Bid/Ask 1/44¢·Spread 43¢·Vol $0·OI $2,386.697·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x028fe6fcde67f39bc54d606681523ef84bbdc2a212a76856e04765b4af8fa4db

7-day price140 snapshots · 5 regime

50¢23¢ current

Apr 80¢Apr 29

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.6%

IY (No) 44.5%

Adj IY 499%

CRI 3

RV 7614%

VR 44.61

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	499%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	7614%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	44.61	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

43¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 10:44:22 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 10:38:55 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x028fe6fcde67f39bc54d606681523ef84bbdc2a212a76856e04765b4af8fa4db yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →