Will Matt Chapman win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Matt Chapman win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,078 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,078 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 62¢ spread and astronomical 314% implied yield on the yes side suggest severe mispricing or minimal market confidence, while the 1340% realized volatility indicates wild historical price swings despite the market's thin depth. With 247 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative niche market where Chapman's actual 2026 defensive prospects may not be accurately reflected in pricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Platinum Glove award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb7b71888b8f09d804e0780e4bb8f0fdd3f525294f68cde19fcfb2e15b9550713 yes 100