Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 1.5

Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 1.5. This contract trades at 83¢ on Polymarket, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme pricing distortion with the Yes side (Over 1.5 goals) trading at 82¢ implying 1,495% annualized yield, while the No side commands a staggering 31,028% implied yield—a red flag indicating severe illiquidity and potential resolution ambiguity.

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83¢
Bid/Ask 81/84¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $2,605.197·Closes Apr 24, 2026·1d remaining
0xb903086c5b129c1fab63015bf80704f64b65b781caac627daabf7f7dcd1a807c
7-day price7 snapshots · 5 regime
84¢83¢ current
Apr 2080¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme pricing distortion with the Yes side (Over 1.5 goals) trading at 82¢ implying 1,495% annualized yield, while the No side commands a staggering 31,028% implied yield—a red flag indicating severe illiquidity and potential resolution ambiguity. The $873k open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume and a high cliff risk index of 5 suggests this is a stale, illiquid position where the last trade may not reflect current match expectations. With only 5 days to expiry and the resolution criteria appearing incomplete in the market description, this presents significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously despite the seemingly attractive odds.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Fateh Saudi Club and Al Khaleej Saudi Club, scheduled for April 24 at 11:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Al Fateh Saudi Club and Al Khaleej Saudi Club combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5956.9%
IY (No) >100,000%
Adj IY 50000%
CRI 5
Overround 2.2%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)5956.9%
IY (No)>100,000%
Adj IY50000%
CRI5
Overround2.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:57:12 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xb903086c5b129c1fab63015bf80704f64b65b781caac627daabf7f7dcd1a807c yes 100

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