Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely bearish view of Republican prospects in Maryland's 6th district, pricing GOP chances at just 10 cents despite 200 days until the November 2026 election. The 1,642% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the minimal $0 trading volume over 24 hours, suggesting the price may be artificially depressed due to illiquidity rather than fundamental conviction. The sharp 7-day decline from 11¢ to 10¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 9 warrants caution, as this illiquid market could experience significant repricing once genuine two-way trading emerges closer to the election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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