Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Joshua McKee's odds have collapsed dramatically from 26¢ to 8¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant negative information arrival about his candidacy, yet the market remains extremely illiquid with only $5 in 24-hour volume and a wide 10¢ spread.
Analysis
Joshua McKee's odds have collapsed dramatically from 26¢ to 8¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant negative information arrival about his candidacy, yet the market remains extremely illiquid with only $5 in 24-hour volume and a wide 10¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 12,806% on the Yes side reflects the extreme mispricing typical of thin markets, while the 33-day timeline to the May 19 primary leaves substantial time for late-breaking developments. The realized volatility of 16,166% and cliff risk index of 12 indicate this is a highly unstable market where small trades can cause outsized price swings, making it unreliable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc62c3a8ca2bfd125ab130806c797e19cb34fc7f17ff12275d2a73aaddaa3fa4c yes 100