Simple Functions

Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 0% probability that Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?. This contract trades at 0¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
0¢mid
Bid/Ask 0/0¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $18,683.788·OI $117,013.09·Closes Nov 3, 2026
0xc6564d7fc7bb20de273fd8383fa95322a1323c18bdd3b59e04ff1140e48d04a9
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 12¢(Δ -12¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.75IY 477.4%Close-time delta 8775h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:50:51 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc6564d7fc7bb20de273fd8383fa95322a1323c18bdd3b59e04ff1140e48d04a9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →