Will Janelle Stelson be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Janelle Stelson be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Janelle Stelson is priced at an extremely high 94¢ with only 32 days to resolution, reflecting near-certainty of her Democratic nomination for PA-10, though the 3-point price rise over seven days suggests recent momentum.
Analysis
Janelle Stelson is priced at an extremely high 94¢ with only 32 days to resolution, reflecting near-certainty of her Democratic nomination for PA-10, though the 3-point price rise over seven days suggests recent momentum. The market shows severe liquidity constraints with just $41 in 24-hour volume against $14.3M open interest, creating a dangerous cliff risk (index of 16) where the No side offers a theoretical 17,914% yield—a red flag indicating potential resolution ambiguity or edge cases that could trigger unexpected payouts. The tight 1¢ spread masks the underlying illiquidity, making this market treacherous for large positions despite the seemingly straightforward political outcome.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc6867b3fa6b81bbb65f85a3a7302757624137a6c128b685e5a4645e1243d01ee yes 100