Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (7%) for Waymo reaching 8 cities by mid-2026, despite the company already operating in multiple cities and having 74 days to expand—creating an exceptional 6560% implied yield for "Yes" positions that suggests potential mispricing. The 4¢ spread and modest $553.61 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, which could amplify price swings if new information about Waymo's expansion plans emerges. With a Cliff Risk Index of 13 and the market in neutral regime, the resolution criteria's reliance on "publicly available" service through Waymo One or partner platforms introduces some ambiguity that could affect final outcomes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service provided by Waymo that is available to the general public and operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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