Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 42¢ spread despite modest $5.7K open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable. The 175% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 729% realized volatility and a 5.76 vol ratio suggests significant uncertainty around Cambria's launch valuation, though the 25% probability may undervalue tail risk given the token hasn't launched yet. With 625 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with limited price discovery rather than an efficient market signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Regime

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