What is the current probability for "Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10100.3% and 28.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/6¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $9.414·OI $14,764.701·69d remaining

0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075

7-day price185 snapshots · 16 regime

29¢5¢ current

Apr 105¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10100.3%

IY (No) 28.0%

Adj IY 10100%

CRI 19

RV 1623%

VR 2.28

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10100.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	28.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	10100%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1623%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.28	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:22:09 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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