Al Hazem SC vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Al Hazem SC vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5. This contract trades at 30¢ on Polymarket, closing April 24, 2026. The Under 3.5 contract is trading at a severe discount (30¢) with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.1M open interest, suggesting potential liquidity illusion or stale pricing ahead of the 4/24 match.

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30¢
Bid/Ask 27/33¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $2,346.096·Closes Apr 24, 2026·1d remaining
0xc9872bece2f351bcbaa25ef3882fcf44c50f3bf989c111ab81dca7fe03c821ed
7-day price4 snapshots · 4 regime
32¢30¢ current
Apr 2030¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

The Under 3.5 contract is trading at a severe discount (30¢) with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.1M open interest, suggesting potential liquidity illusion or stale pricing ahead of the 4/24 match. The astronomical implied yields (20,992% for Yes, 3,855% for No) indicate extreme mispricing, likely driven by low trading activity and the tight 7¢ spread failing to reflect true uncertainty. With only 4 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be a liquidity trap where the quoted price may not reflect actual execution prices for meaningful position sizes.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Hazem SC and Al Riyadh Saudi Club, scheduled for April 24 at 12:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Al Hazem SC and Al Riyadh Saudi Club combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 67861.9%
IY (No) 12464.4%
Adj IY 33931%
CRI 2
Overround 1.8%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)67861.9%
IY (No)12464.4%
Adj IY33931%
CRI2
Overround1.8%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:54:29 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xc9872bece2f351bcbaa25ef3882fcf44c50f3bf989c111ab81dca7fe03c821ed yes 100

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