What is the current probability for "Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 93¢ (93% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4.4% and 784.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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93¢

Bid/Ask 91/94¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $22,714.388·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0xcb0435359047119a7c21536b540a98362a079cabb684746939faf9df9ab4774f

7-day price65 snapshots · 2 regime

95¢93¢ current

Apr 888¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4.4%

IY (No) 784.0%

Adj IY 392%

CRI 13

Overround 1.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	784.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	392%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:49:02 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xcb0435359047119a7c21536b540a98362a079cabb684746939faf9df9ab4774f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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