Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Arsenal's Premier League title odds have collapsed dramatically, dropping 27 cents over seven days (from 87¢ to 60¢), suggesting either a significant deterioration in their actual performance or a major correction from an inflated opening price. With only 40 days until expiry and $439k in open interest against relatively modest $31k daily volume, the market shows thin liquidity that could amplify further price swings, particularly if Arsenal's title hopes are mathematically eliminated. The extreme implied yield on the "No" side (1371.5%) reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of long-shot binary bets near resolution, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index suggest no imminent catalyst-driven repricing.

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade