Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 425.0?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $501 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 12¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (493% for Yes, 4440% for No) reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment, and the sharp 31¢ price jump over seven days suggests possible manipulation or a single large bet moving the market. With shelter CPI historically trending upward and only 25 days to expiry, traders should be cautious that this high probability may not reflect true market consensus given the negligible trading activity.

Resolution rules

If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 425.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade