Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

The Democrats are priced at a historically depressed 7¢ with an extraordinary 2,426% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting Oklahoma's deep Republican lean where Democrats haven't won a gubernatorial race since 1994. Despite the extreme yield, the market shows modest liquidity with only $127.5k in 24-hour volume and $31.5m open interest, while the 853% realized volatility and 1.86 vol ratio suggest significant price swings driven by sparse information arrivals (0.5/hour). The tight 1¢ spread and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled into a consensus view, though the 13 cliff risk index warrants caution around potential late-breaking political developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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