Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in an extremely confident 89% win probability for NJ-11, yet the massive 1,471% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or that contrarian bettors see significant Republican upside despite the heavy Democratic lean. The $21.9M open interest with only $49K in 24-hour volume indicates illiquid depth, meaning large positions could face slippage, and the 8 Cliff Risk Index combined with 201 days to expiry creates vulnerability to late-campaign shifts or unexpected candidate changes. The 1-cent spread is tight, but the asymmetric yield profile (22.5% vs. 1,471%) is highly unusual and warrants skepticism about whether the Yes price accurately reflects true Democratic dominance in this district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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