Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 74¢ reflects a substantial favorite position in VA-05, though the extreme 517.7% implied yield on the "No" side suggests meaningful uncertainty or potential mispricing of the Republican outcome. The 152% realized volatility and notable 5-cent price decline over seven days indicate this race remains fluid despite the comfortable Democratic baseline, with the neutral regime score (0.409) suggesting no strong directional momentum heading into the 201-day window. The 4¢ spread and $13M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the 1.88 volume ratio warrants monitoring for potential information shocks as the 2026 cycle intensifies.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade