AZ-05 House Election Winner
Leader sits at 81% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Republican Party
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Democratic Party
Spread
67pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
AZ-05 House Election Winner
Analysis
The AZ-05 House race shows a 54% probability for one candidate, indicating a highly competitive matchup. This reflects a district where recent electoral performance and demographic trends create genuine uncertainty about the outcome. The main factors affecting this probability are candidate quality and campaign effectiveness, along with broader national political sentiment that could shift in either party's favor heading into the general election. The race will likely become more certain as Election Day approaches and final polling data emerges, with campaign spending, candidate debate performance, and late-breaking news potentially moving the probability significantly in either direction.
- ›District voting history in recent elections (2020, 2022) compared to current candidate positioning
- ›Relative campaign funding and spending levels between the two major party candidates
- ›Late polling averages and trend direction in the final weeks before election day
- ›Voter registration changes and turnout patterns specific to AZ-05's demographic composition
- ›Performance of top-of-ticket candidates in this district versus their statewide averages
Recently closed in election 2026
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- CA-07 House Election Winnerlast 96% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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