Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetric risk with a 1333.9% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 24.8% on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 88¢ price may be overvalued despite the tight 2¢ spread and relatively healthy $13.5M open interest. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates low liquidity and potential pricing staleness, making the high Republican probability vulnerable to sharp repricing if new information emerges before the November 2026 election. With 201 days to expiry, this market has substantial time for political developments to shift what currently appears to be a heavily Republican-favored district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade