Will the Democratic Party win the CA-44 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in CA-44, with a 94¢ price implying near-certainty of a Democratic hold, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 2860% implied yield compared to just 11.7% for Yes—a massive asymmetry suggesting severe illiquidity and mispricing on the Republican side. The $19.6K open interest against only $1.07 in daily volume indicates this is a thinly-traded position market where the extreme No yield is largely theoretical, and the 16 Cliff Risk Index combined with 200 days to expiry suggests potential for sharp repricing if polling or fundamentals shift. The flat 7-day price action and tight 1¢ spread mask the underlying fragility of this market's pricing structure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade