Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of April?

The 90-cent price reflects an extremely high 90% implied probability that AMZN closes above $200 by month-end, yet the asymmetric implied yields (357% for Yes versus 28,919% for No) signal severe mispricing or structural imbalance in the market. With only 11 days to expiry, $25.86K in 24-hour volume, and a wide 19-cent spread relative to the price, liquidity is thin and the market appears overconfident in the bullish outcome—the No side offers outsized returns precisely because it's heavily underpriced. The Cliff Risk Index of 9 and neutral regime suggest elevated tail risk near resolution, making this a potentially exploitable contrarian opportunity if AMZN faces any near-term weakness.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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