Will the Democratic Party win the NC-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $27k in open interest, suggesting the 93¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing. The massive 2416.7% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of a thin, one-sided market where minimal capital backing the Democratic loss creates outsized odds—this is further confirmed by the 13 Cliff Risk Index indicating significant tail risk. With 201 days until the November 2026 resolution, the market has ample time for political developments in this traditionally Republican district to shift sentiment, making the current 93¢ price potentially overconfident given the illiquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade