Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?

The Democratic contract has rallied 14% over the past week to 71¢, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment toward a Democratic hold of FL-14, though the 680% realized volatility suggests considerable uncertainty beneath the surface. The extreme 447% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing or genuine tail risk, as the risk-adjusted yield matches the nominal yield—a red flag suggesting the market may be underpricing Republican chances despite the current Democratic lean. With $12.6M in open interest but only $391K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for a race this far out, and the 6.25 volatility ratio combined with a 2.0/hour information arrival rate suggests this market is highly reactive to polling or campaign developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade