Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?

This market is pricing in only a 9% probability of Mexico's president leaving office over the next 258 days, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1,431% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 14% on the "No" side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $13.5M open interest and a 3¢ spread suggests this is a relatively illiquid position despite substantial notional exposure, indicating limited recent conviction either direction. The high cliff risk index (10) paired with neutral regime conditions warrants caution, as the market may be underpricing tail risks around political instability in Mexico given the binary nature of the resolution criteria.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade