Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (8¢) for a Trump-Bolsonaro meeting in 2026 despite over $10k in open interest, creating an asymmetric risk profile with a 1,627% implied yield for "Yes" positions against just 12.3% for "No"—suggesting either significant underpricing of geopolitical alignment or market skepticism about their relationship post-2024.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (8¢) for a Trump-Bolsonaro meeting in 2026 despite over $10k in open interest, creating an asymmetric risk profile with a 1,627% implied yield for "Yes" positions against just 12.3% for "No"—suggesting either significant underpricing of geopolitical alignment or market skepticism about their relationship post-2024. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the high yield, and the recent 1¢ price decline from 9¢ over seven days suggests modest recent pessimism, though the 258-day timeframe provides ample room for political developments to shift probabilities materially.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd791829a13a854f0dbae5206b54cd851e35a66be3e7ab07745f7ad3290e1432c yes 100