Will the Republican Party win the MI-01 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided Republican advantage at 88¢, yet the zero 24-hour volume and modest $10k open interest suggest minimal conviction or liquidity behind this assessment. The asymmetric implied yields—24.9% for Yes versus 1338% for No—reveal severe mispricing where the No side offers outsized returns, indicating either a liquidity desert on the bearish side or potential model error in the pricing mechanism. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market warrants caution as the wide spread and illiquidity could lead to sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade