Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 75¢ reflects a three-quarter probability of holding NY-03, but the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields—the No side offers 545% versus 60.5% for Yes, suggesting severe underpricing of the Republican upset scenario. With 201 days to expiry, the 5¢ spread and $10.3M open interest mask thin actual trading depth, and the 173% realized volatility combined with a 2.23 vol ratio indicates this market has experienced significant price swings despite the current neutral regime, warranting caution for position sizing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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