What is the current probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 658.1% and 31.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

17¢

Bid/Ask 12/22¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $19.33·OI $398.668·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xdda8b52c6bf2cf875f57572345caca0c145924d782b9e4838ca4fdf2186fb9eb

7-day price192 snapshots · 6 regime

36¢17¢ current

Apr 812¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 658.1%

IY (No) 31.7%

Adj IY 658%

CRI 5

RV 1042%

VR 4.81

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	658.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	31.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	658%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1042%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.81	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 8:20:44 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xdda8b52c6bf2cf875f57572345caca0c145924d782b9e4838ca4fdf2186fb9eb yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions