What is the current probability for "Will Cruzeiro win Brazil Série A?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 16, 2026. 233 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Cruzeiro win Brazil Série A?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1269.5% and 19.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Cruzeiro win Brazil Série A?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Cruzeiro win Brazil Série A?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Cruzeiro win Brazil Série A?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 16, 2026.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 0/23¢·Spread 23¢·Vol $5·OI $156.114·Closes Dec 16, 2026·233d remaining

0xddd464afd4bef87f4a632ea246f10738195500e05ccca4efc1918dbb12964805

7-day price298 snapshots · 2 regime

48¢12¢ current

Apr 250¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the Brazil Série A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Brazil Série A per the rules of Brazil Série A (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Brazil Série A; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1269.5%

IY (No) 19.4%

Adj IY 1270%

CRI 8

RV 27271%

VR 47.13

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1269.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1270%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	27271%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	47.13	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

23¢

Computed

4/27/2026, 9:15:59 AM

Indicators computed 4/27/2026, 9:08:22 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xddd464afd4bef87f4a632ea246f10738195500e05ccca4efc1918dbb12964805 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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